Below are some of my thoughts on the conduct of the National Assembly Elections.
1. A long way from 2007: The 1st leg of the elections even with the postponements were not perfect, but improvements are noticeable from 4 years ago. Attempting to go from 0 to 100% in one election is unrealistic, but the positives are there. For example, I got to my polling unit by 9am, 90 minutes earlier than I arrived on April 2nd. The logistics were better. The turnout also increased. On April 2nd, I accredited 165 people. The number went up to 259, the vast majority of which voted. I was also impressed with the security. Across the country, similar improvements were recorded. International observers declared their satisfaction with the conduct of the elections and while there were still few lapses, it is clear that Nigeria will get there eventually.
2. Beware early results: the first results that came in showed the ruling PDP at a seemingly huge disadvantage. However, they were mostly from the south-west and there was a lot more counting to be done throughout the country. Two very interesting cases involved Bukola Saraki and David Mark, who were trailing on saturday night only to cross the line first on sunday. All early results must be viewed with caution henceforth. More on Saraki later.
3. Bankole, Oyinlola display sportmanship: the Speaker of the House, Dimeji Bankole won a lot of sympathy when he released a statement conceding defeat. Olagunsoye Oyinlola followed suit on sunday when he lost his Senate bid in Osun state. The hope is that other politicians can emulate both these men. There is honour even in defeat.
4. ACN roars back in the South West, but it's gains elsewhere are limited: from a record low of one out of six south-west states in 2007, the ACN looks set to dominate the zone once again with sweeping victories in the legislative races setting them up nicely in the other elections. The gains in other zones have been less dramatic, picking up just 2 senate seats in Edo and 1 Rep. Seat each in Akwa Ibom, Kaduna and Plateau. A lot of results are outstanding however, and the picture may change considerably.
5. Delay in release of final results could change perception: the delay in the release of the full results, 48 hours after close of voting is cause for anxiety and leaves room for speculation. Many have even joked that there might be some advanced mathematics involved in result computation other than simple addition, or that an abacus is being used at INEC HQ. I hope we won't have to wait 3 days before the results of the Presidential election are announced.
6. Is a reset in Nigerian politics underway? : the full answer to this question won't be known until all the results of all the elections come in, but the trend certainly points to a reduction of the PDP's majority in both houses. Will it extend to the governorship and Presidential elections? How will the results influence each other? The outcome will definitely be interesting to see.
7. Did the NYSC DG lie?: the bomb that went off at the INEC office in Suleja, Niger state will be remembered as one of the most cowardly acts ever committed on our soil. Several news media carried the story that members of the NYSC died in that explosion. The Director-General of the NYSC later issued a statement saying that no Corper was killed. ThisDay reported that Victoria Akonde lost her life in the blast. Why would Tsiga lie about it? To save face? If he did lie, he certainly has a case to answer.
8. The role of social media: I really can't end this without talking about the role of citizen reporters in the elections. There were a number of platforms: like Revoda, that enabled voters to send in reports from their polling units. This added to the openness of the process, and the scenes of people cheering as the votes were counted was a heart-warming sight. The people's votes are counting once again. Reports from various polling units flooded Twitter throughout saturday night. One especially interesting event was that despite reports indicating the Bukola Saraki had lost his bid for the Senate in Kwara, his twitter account said on saturday night that the PDP had won all the legislative seats available. The tweet was soon deleted, but the results turned out exactly as he said. Was he clairvoyant?
Monday, April 11, 2011
Monday, April 4, 2011
Why Jega deserves our support
The announcement of the postponement of the general elections for the 2nd time in 2 days left many disappointed. Many people hoped to not go to work on Monday, but had their hopes cruelly dashed by the INEC Chairman at 5.30pm on Sunday. Nigerians are right to be upset when their plans (or lack thereof) are disrupted for the small matter of an election that will happen once every four years.
However, it is impossible to have perspective about the last 2 days without looking back at the last 4 years. The 2007 elections were decried by Madeleine Albright as the worst she had witnessed. There were governorship re-runs in Delta and Anambra, with results overturned in Ekiti, Edo and other states. There are yet more cases pending in court. Any mess that takes 4 years to clean up is something that must not be allowed to happen again.
This is why the postponements are preferable to a situation anything like what happened in '07. A lot of money has gone into this process, but we must remember that much of the structure which produced that the 2007 elections is still in place. The overall lesson here is that money cannot stand alone. Only the right people in the right places and the right processes can ensure the smooth running of an operation as large as trying to conduct an election for a country whose voting population alone is nearly equal to the populations of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya combined.
Criticism of the INEC Chairman must thus be tempered by the knowledge of the situation he met on the ground. This Commission is clearly in need of reform, and Attahiru Jega is caught between trying to deliver an election when he said he would and also trying to deliver one he can put his signature on, as they are not the same thing.
All that matters now is that we have credible elections. If that objective is achieved, then the inquest and very necessary root-and-branch reform of INEC can begin. A postponed election is better than a rigged one.
However, it is impossible to have perspective about the last 2 days without looking back at the last 4 years. The 2007 elections were decried by Madeleine Albright as the worst she had witnessed. There were governorship re-runs in Delta and Anambra, with results overturned in Ekiti, Edo and other states. There are yet more cases pending in court. Any mess that takes 4 years to clean up is something that must not be allowed to happen again.
This is why the postponements are preferable to a situation anything like what happened in '07. A lot of money has gone into this process, but we must remember that much of the structure which produced that the 2007 elections is still in place. The overall lesson here is that money cannot stand alone. Only the right people in the right places and the right processes can ensure the smooth running of an operation as large as trying to conduct an election for a country whose voting population alone is nearly equal to the populations of Egypt, Tunisia and Libya combined.
Criticism of the INEC Chairman must thus be tempered by the knowledge of the situation he met on the ground. This Commission is clearly in need of reform, and Attahiru Jega is caught between trying to deliver an election when he said he would and also trying to deliver one he can put his signature on, as they are not the same thing.
All that matters now is that we have credible elections. If that objective is achieved, then the inquest and very necessary root-and-branch reform of INEC can begin. A postponed election is better than a rigged one.
Saturday, April 2, 2011
INEC's failure to launch
On the 22nd of March at a consultative dialogue with the NBA, the INEC Chairman Attahiru Jega said: ‘For INEC, I can say categorically and convincingly that we are ready for the election, the question should be, are the lawyers and politicians ready?’ 11 days later, he has to eat his words: ‘…in order to maintain the integrity of the elections and retain effective overall control of the process, the Commission has taken the difficult but necessary decision to postpone the National Assembly elections to Monday, April 4, 2011. I appeal to all Nigerians for their understanding in this difficult situation.’ Coming the day after April Fools’ Day, it seemed like an expensive joke. It wasn’t a joke, but it certainly was expensive. It has taken Nigeria nearly N150 billion ($1 billion)and a 2 month extension to get to this point as the elections were initially to hold in February to give more time to settle electoral disputes which may arise. The main issue was the lack of EC8A and EC8A (1) forms without which results cannot be recorded. Transportation of officials and materials was also a major issue throughout the country.
If problems could be solved by throwing money at them alone, much of Nigeria’s problems would be over. Instead, today’s failure (because that is what it is) when the eyes of whole world were focused on us (well, those that aren’t focused on Libya, Japan, Ivory Coast) is merely the latest and most dramatic failure of another government institution in this country. Indeed, it is easy to go for Jega’s jugular right now, but his acceptance of responsibility for today’s debacle is one of very few positives to draw on. It’s also easy to forget that he has inherited an electoral body made in the image of Maurice Iwu, a machine seemingly built to rig, which gave us one of the worst elections in any democratic country, anywhere, ever. I doubt we would have gotten a similar statement from Prof. Iwu had he still been chairman. We would have gotten cooked up results instead. Jega has said in the past that INEC needs to be reformed but you can’t undo 5 years of Iwu in less than 1 year.
This is however scant consolation to the millions who turned out to vote today, trying to make their voices heard. At least, they have another chance to participate in an exercise that while extremely costly, still has the chance for a minimum of credibility. Spare a thought also for the ad-hoc staff, who can’t just walk away from a polling booth after a false start. I am one of them. They bear the brunt of INEC’s logistic shambles in many ways, especially in terms of transportation to and from ward collation centres, polling units and the various INEC offices in the local governments. Many of the youth corpers in my ward had to walk to their units carrying election materials. Many also walked back. As I speak, not a kobo has been given any of my colleagues. No, it is not about money. It’s about taking care of those who do the dirty work. Hundreds of young people spent the night in and around local government HQs across Nigeria. Some slept on mats, some spent the night at guest houses, and some didn’t sleep.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the impressive use of twitter and other tools for reporting on the elections. Those reports were the first signs that things were going wrong across the country. We also saw those tools used to spread falsehood, most notable of which was the BBM broadcast that said both AC and ACN were on the ballot, both with the broom sign. I promptly refuted this on my own twitter page. The only way to counter such false information is by finding out and disseminating the truth.
So, it seems we will gather on Monday to do it all again. I personally think it’s too soon. I don’t know how possible it is to get result sheets to over 100,000 polling units in less than 48 hours, and the transportation issues remain. The party agents and ad-hoc staff will need to be paid. I’ll suggest that the National Assembly and Presidential elections hold together. I don’t know all the factors the INEC Chairman has to consider, but I’m sure he will take the right decision. No matter how difficult.
The price Nigeria is paying during this election cycle to get credible elections is a steep one. I am not alone in hoping that it is all worth it in the end.
If problems could be solved by throwing money at them alone, much of Nigeria’s problems would be over. Instead, today’s failure (because that is what it is) when the eyes of whole world were focused on us (well, those that aren’t focused on Libya, Japan, Ivory Coast) is merely the latest and most dramatic failure of another government institution in this country. Indeed, it is easy to go for Jega’s jugular right now, but his acceptance of responsibility for today’s debacle is one of very few positives to draw on. It’s also easy to forget that he has inherited an electoral body made in the image of Maurice Iwu, a machine seemingly built to rig, which gave us one of the worst elections in any democratic country, anywhere, ever. I doubt we would have gotten a similar statement from Prof. Iwu had he still been chairman. We would have gotten cooked up results instead. Jega has said in the past that INEC needs to be reformed but you can’t undo 5 years of Iwu in less than 1 year.
This is however scant consolation to the millions who turned out to vote today, trying to make their voices heard. At least, they have another chance to participate in an exercise that while extremely costly, still has the chance for a minimum of credibility. Spare a thought also for the ad-hoc staff, who can’t just walk away from a polling booth after a false start. I am one of them. They bear the brunt of INEC’s logistic shambles in many ways, especially in terms of transportation to and from ward collation centres, polling units and the various INEC offices in the local governments. Many of the youth corpers in my ward had to walk to their units carrying election materials. Many also walked back. As I speak, not a kobo has been given any of my colleagues. No, it is not about money. It’s about taking care of those who do the dirty work. Hundreds of young people spent the night in and around local government HQs across Nigeria. Some slept on mats, some spent the night at guest houses, and some didn’t sleep.
It would be remiss of me not to mention the impressive use of twitter and other tools for reporting on the elections. Those reports were the first signs that things were going wrong across the country. We also saw those tools used to spread falsehood, most notable of which was the BBM broadcast that said both AC and ACN were on the ballot, both with the broom sign. I promptly refuted this on my own twitter page. The only way to counter such false information is by finding out and disseminating the truth.
So, it seems we will gather on Monday to do it all again. I personally think it’s too soon. I don’t know how possible it is to get result sheets to over 100,000 polling units in less than 48 hours, and the transportation issues remain. The party agents and ad-hoc staff will need to be paid. I’ll suggest that the National Assembly and Presidential elections hold together. I don’t know all the factors the INEC Chairman has to consider, but I’m sure he will take the right decision. No matter how difficult.
The price Nigeria is paying during this election cycle to get credible elections is a steep one. I am not alone in hoping that it is all worth it in the end.
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